Joshua Lipton of Forbes.com writes:
Industrial stocks were hammered last week after General Electric undershot analyst expectations, but the sharp sell-off provided a buying opportunity for those investors shopping around for attractive places to buy into the sector.
General Electric missed forecasts with its first-quarter earnings and was quickly punished for those results. The stock tumbled 12.8%, to $32.05, its worst decline since the stock market crash of 1987.
Investors are worried about the implications for other industrial stocks. As the U.S. economy was sputtering, investors believed that international exposure of multinational conglomerates like GE would protect them from a stumbling domestic market.
Now stock market investors are concerned that these industrials might not be as secure as they first thought.
GE wasn’t the only industrial to get pummeled by jittery investors. Other names like United Technologies, 3M, Cummins and Tyco all received a whacking heading into the weekend.
The Industrial Select Sector SPDR shed 3.9% on Friday.
In Pictures: Five Buys, Five Sells
Another industrial loser last week was Oshkosh Corp., which slipped 2.4% to $35.37 on Friday. (The stock gave up about 6% on the week). But here, the best-performing online investors, Marketocracy’s M100, figured there was a buying opportunity.
Oshkosh is a leading manufacturer of specialty vehicles, including fire trucks, military trucks and concrete-mixer trucks. The company has a market capitalization of about $2.6 billion.
Bears on the stock have their criticisms. They write that Oshkosh has a lot of customers in cyclical industries, like construction. They also point out that about 25% of the company’s sales are to Uncle Sam, mostly to the defense department. It’s unclear which presidential candidate will be moving into the White House next and what that new administration’s plans are for defense spending.
The stock of Oshkosh hasn’t been a crowd pleaser. Over the past 12 months, it has gone down about 34%. Over the past six months, it has slipped about 43%.
But there are reasons for hope here, analysts say. They point to the company’s strong profitability, as well as its high stability in earnings and dividend growth.
Oshkosh bulls write that it has the No. 1 market share in many of its product categories. Competition in fire trucks, which represent about 9% of the company’s sales, is weakening, analysts say.
Back in February, Oshkosh issued second-quarter guidance, which undershot Wall Street estimates. (Oshkosh will report Q2 results May 1.) But, looking ahead, the company reaffirmed full-year guidance, saying it’s still looking for 2008 earnings per share in the range of $4.15 to $4.35, compared with EPS of $3.58 in 2007.
So, basically, Oshkosh is telling Wall Street that the road traveled by its rumbling vehicles might be bumpy in the second quarter. But it’s looking for a smoother ride for the full year.
“Oshkosh is meeting weak market conditions head-on by investing in global initiatives to improve distribution in key international growth markets and reducing costs across all businesses,” said CEO Robert Bohn. “This permits us to maintain our positive outlook for fiscal 2008.”
Our M100 are always looking for a bargain before they commit capital. Oshkosh would now appear to provide one. Compared with the competition, Oshkosh is run more profitably and it’s cheaper (and will continue to be less expensive in the future). In fact, the company now has a very attractive price-to-earnings-growth ratio of just 0.38. Anything less than one is considered cheap.
Looking ahead, analysts expect a lot more growth out of this company. Over the next five years, professional stock watchers think Oshkosh will grow, per annum, at 21.33%, far ahead of how much they see the rest of the industry growing.
The M100 liked what they saw, figured it was a steal and moved in–aggressively.
Other big buys last week for our gurus included health insurer Aetna and insurance company HCC Insurance Holdings. They also liked the look of lawn mower maker Toro.
Analysts partial to Toro emphasize its solid history of growth and margin improvement and its low level of debt.
Last week, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services revised its outlook on Bloomington, Minn.-based Toro to positive from stable. S&P also affirmed all of its ratings on the company, including its BBB corporate credit rating.
The outlook revision reflected the company’s improved business risk profile as it has expanded its more profitable and stable professional segment, S&P said. The M100 moved in.
In Pictures: Five Buys, Five Sells
But the gurus weren’t just busy buying last week. They also decided it was time to bail out on a few names, including Brady Corp., a Milwaukee-based company that makes labels and signs.
The stock, year-to-date, is off about 8%. It’s also a bit more expensive on expected growth, compared with its competitors. The gurus jumped out.
They also bailed on toy maker RC2 and satellite communications company Globalstar.
The M100 are now feeling a bit more bullish on health care, it looks like. They sold completely out of UltraShort Health Care ProShares, an exchange-traded fund that moves double in the opposite direction of the Dow Jones U.S. Health Care Index.
Health care stocks haven’t been treated kindly by investors. Year-to-date, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR is down more than 10%. In the past three months, it has gone down more than 13%.
But there are reasons for optimism here, one could argue.
There has historically been little relationship between dips in gross domestic product during recessions and health care spending. Also, as the first quarter drew to a close, the health care sector as a whole had become slightly undervalued, according to some analysts. (See: “Gurus Heal Portfolios with Health Insurers.”)
Guru Buys
Oshkosh (nyse: OSK)
Aetna (nyse: AET)
HCC Insurance Holdings (nyse: HCC)
Toro (nyse: TTC)
Xinyuan Real Estate Co.
Gurus Sells
Brady Corp. (nyse: BRC)
RC2 (nasdaq: RCRC)
Globalstar (nasdaq: GSAT)
UltraShort Health Care ProShares (amex: RXD)
WuXi PharmaTech
Tags: Marketocracy